Porthaethwy: Mei 2011

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The Mind Game Of MMA
12 Lessons To Develop The Mental Toughness Essential To Becoming A Champion

This is the first book ever written on mental performance specifically for the growing sport of MMA. Written by Kevin Seaman, both a World Class competitor and a coach with 40 years in the martial arts and over 20 years as a mental coach. The foreword was written by Professor Phil Migliarese III, a fourth degree black belt under Professor Relson Gracie and one of the leading authorities of Gracie Jiu Jitsu.

Kevin's first book, The Winning Mind Set was was described by 2011 UFC Champion Jon "Bones" Jones as "Simply Brilliant!" This invaluable book was read and used by competitors in the cage, on the mat, and the ring from the UFC, USMTA, Pan Am BJJ, and USA Boxing, to the extreme sports of Pro Kiteboarding, snowboarding, Olympic Skeleton, Pro Hockey and on.

In his new book, The Mind Game Of MMA, Kevin delivers some of the BEST mental coaching principles he's learned from a select few of the top coaches in the World, from Combat Sports, Professional Sports and personal development.

Learn the essential things you need to bring your game to the next level.
Find out what separates the extraordinary competitor from everyone else.
Capture the KEY to mastering performance under pressure.
Discover the Critical Success Factors necessary to succeed on any level.
Develop the self communication skills used by the Top Athletes.
Get the results you want in the sport you love.
Learn the secrets to Unleashing The Power Of Your Mind!

"Kevin is a wealth of knowledge, an excellent martial artist and a great instructor. I continue to use his books as references and look forward to new material." - Greg Nelson World Class Coach and owner of The Academy in Minnesota

Sales Rank: #2237453 in Books
Published on: 2011-11-01
Binding: Paperback
134 pages

About the Author
Kevin Seaman

*40 Years in the Martial Arts
*Mental and Physical Performance Coach with 25 years experience
*Studied Thai Boxing since 1986 under Ajarn Chai Sirisute
*Certified Full Instructor and Special Advisor for the Thai Boxing Association USA
* Certified 23 Thai Boxing Instructors through the TBA
*Full Instructor and Senior Student under Sifu Dan Inosanto in Jeet Kune Do and in Filipino Martial Arts
*Considered one of the leading authorities of Jeet Kune Do
*Striking coach for over 100 competitors in USA Boxing, UFC, USMTA, IKBA, Bellator and others.
*Certified CSW Instructor Under Erik Paulson
*Certified Instructor in Seven Martial Arts Systems total (2 in JKD)
* Certified Full Instructor in Jeet Kune Do under Sifu Tim Tackett
* Certified Associate Instructor in Wing Chun under Sifu Francis Fong
*Blue Belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu
*Certified USA Boxing Coach
*Certified Police Defensive Tactics Instructor
*Author of 3 books:
Jun Fan Gung Fu: Seeking The Path Of Jeet Kune Do
The Winning Mind Set
The Mind Game Of MMA
*Professional Educator/Consultant/ Speaker
*Staff Instructor in Physical Education/ Athletics Department at Cornell University for 20 years.
*Has written for various magazines, featured in Black Belt, Inside Kung Fu, MA Training, Authority MMA, and others.

Most helpful customer reviews

4 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
Keep it in your gym bag. Read it over and over.
By David K. Emerson
This is an excellent, concise, concrete, and practical little book about how to sharpen your "Mind Game," stay positive, and reach your goals. Whether you are a martial artist, athlete, or just a person trying to succeed at life, this is a book you can pick-up over and over again for its "Pearls of Wisdom" and practical methods. The pithy quotes throughout distill a point down to its essence. "Our greatest enemies, the ones we must fight most often, are within," Seaman quotes from Thomas Paine. His book will prepare you for the fight.

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Road Map to Success not just in MMA
By Kevin M Smith (KMS)
Kevin's book is not just for the Mixed Martial Artist. Kevin's book is for everyone ho wants to reach their maximum potential.

Starting with setting your focus on the positive attributes. Kevin puts you in the proper mindset or the work ahead of you. Just as a great coach is supposed to do, Kevin provides you the confidence and guidence to reach your goals but leaves the work to you for its completion.
(Because as everyone knows, success in one's goals is measured in the work it takes to achieve them.)

Kevin is your mentor, your guide and your friend throughout your journey. In this book, he has provided you the road map to your goals. In this book, he provides the challenge to you to reach your greatness.

Take the challenge and become your very best

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Awesome Book!!!
By Curtis W. Yeomans
Fantastic book! I bought Sifu Kevin Seamans previous book "The Winning Mindset" back in 06 or 07 & have attended a number of his seminars since then. Reading The Winning Mindset was a perception altering experience. Sifu's wealth of experience is second to none. You cant train directly under some of the most elite instructors on the planet and NOT be razor sharp. So I knew "The Mind Game of MMA" would be a similar read as Mindset was - and it didnt disappoint! Whether you train simply to get in shape or you compete in the UFC...this book will only make you better!

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Studies of religious interaction in the fourth century AD have often assumed that the categories of 'pagan', 'Christian' and 'Jew' can be straightforwardly applied, and that we can assess the extent of Christianization in the Graeco-Roman period. In contrast, in this text, Dr Sandwell tackles the fundamental question of attitudes to religious identity by exploring how the Christian preacher John Chrysostom and the Graeco-Roman orator Libanius wrote about and understood issues of religious allegiance. By comparing the approaches of these men, who were living and working in Antioch at approximately the same time, she strives to get inside the process of religious interaction in a way not normally possible due to the dominance of Christian sources. In so doing she develops approaches to the study of Libanius' religion, the impact of John Chrysostom's preaching on his audiences and the importance of religious identity to fourth-century individuals.

Sales Rank: #3871359 in Books
Published on: 2011-06-30
Original language: English
Number of items: 1
Dimensions: 9.02" h x .67" w x 5.98" l, .96 pounds
Binding: Paperback
324 pages

About the Author
Isabella Sandwell is Lecturer in Ancient History at the University of Bristol.

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Sabtu, 28 Mei 2011

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Making Sense of Critical Appraisal provides all the necessary information on how to read and understand medical research publications critically and to decide whether the contents of such publications are clinically useful in the care of patients.

Illustrated throughout with medically relevant examples, this text covers all aspects of study design and clinical audit to give a clear framework for critical reading.

Sales Rank: #1587323 in Books
Published on: 2002-08-30
Original language: English
Number of items: 1
Dimensions: 5.10" h x .50" w x 7.70" l, .50 pounds
Binding: Paperback
160 pages

Review
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A very good book for critical appraisal. Easy to read with loads of funny examples...well worth it.
Customer review, Amazon.com

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Towers Hospital, Leicester

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Most helpful customer reviews

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
very good book
By tokun baby
A very good book for critical appraisal. Easy to read with loads of funny examples. A few typo's with one or two graphics but on the whole, well worth it.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Making Sense of Critical Appraisal
By "Daisy"
It is a great summary for those with some epidemiology and statistical background. Good for those in the research field!

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Four Stars
By alaa
Good book

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Selasa, 24 Mei 2011

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The word "globalization" is used to convey the hope and determination of order-making on a worldwide scale. It is trumpeted as providing more mobility―of people, capital, and information―and as being equally beneficial for everyone. With recent technological developments―most notably the Internet―globalization seems to be the fate of the world. But no one seems to be in control. As noted sociologist Zygmunt Bauman shows in this detailed history of globalization, while human affairs now take place on a global scale, we are not able to direct events; we can only watch as boundaries, institutions, and loyalties shift in rapid and unpredictable ways. Who benefits from the new globalization? Are people in need assisted more quickly and efficiently? Or are the poor worse off than ever before? Will a globalized economy shift jobs away from traditional areas, destroying time-honored national industries? Who will enjoy access to jobs in the new hierarchy of mobility?

From the way the global economy creates a class of absentee landlords to current prison designs for the criminalized underclass, Bauman dissects globalization in all its manifestations: its effects on the economy, politics, social structures, and even our perceptions of time and space. In a chilling analysis, Bauman argues that globalization divides as much as it unites, creating an ever-widening gulf between the haves and the have-nots. Rather than the hybrid culture we had hoped for, globalization is creating a more homogenous world.

Drawing on the works of philosophers, social historians, architects, and theoreticians such as Michel Foucault, Claude Lévi-Strauss, Alfred J. Dunlap, and Le Corbusier, Globalization presents a historical overview of the methods employed to create and define human spaces and institutions, from rural villages to sprawling urban centers. Bauman shows how the advent of the computer translates into the decline of truly public space. And he explores the dimensions of a world in which―through new technologies―time is accelerated and space is compressed, revealing how we have arrived at our current state of global thinking. Bauman's incisive methods of inquiry make Globalization an excellent antidote to the exuberance expressed by those who stand to benefit from the new pace and mobility of the modern life.

Sales Rank: #686765 in Books
Published on: 1998-09-15
Released on: 2000-10-06
Original language: English
Number of items: 1
Dimensions: 7.50" h x .33" w x 5.38" l, .37 pounds
Binding: Paperback
136 pages

Review

Anyone prepared to move beyond the seductiveness of libertarian ideology... will find Globalization as eloquent a summation of the problem as they are likely to encounter anywhere.

(Alan Ehrenhalt Wilson Quarterly)

Utilizing the works of philosophers, historians, architects, and theoreticians, British sociologist Zygmunt Bauman takes a hard look at the history, ethics, and economic and social consequences of globalization, and finds that it will inevitably divide more than it unites.

(Globe and Mail)

A valuable introduction to the question of globalization, and, more importantly, sets a new agenda for sociological theory at the beginning of the twenty-first century.

(Acta Sociologica)

A powerful antidote to bland political-cultural pronouncements of the 'there is no alternative' variety.

(British Journal of Sociology)

Brooding brilliance... Bauman subtly lays out [globalization's] 'human consequences.'

(Independent)

About the Author

Zygmunt Bauman is emeritus professor of sociology at the University of Leeds and the University of Warsaw. He is the author or editor of numerous books, including Liquid Times: Living in an Age of Uncertainty, Consuming Life, Does Ethics Have a Chance in a World of Consumers? and The Art of Life.

Most helpful customer reviews

24 of 24 people found the following review helpful.
The Spatial Division of Global Power
By A Customer
The process of socio-economic reform in the free-market era, facilitated under the direction of private enterprise, has created an international dichotomy in the political realm between the mobility of capital (global) and the immobility of labor (local). Essentially, Bauman argues that the privatization of the global economy, although gradually, has led to the erosion of the public sphere and a rise in absentee landlordism. In a sociological sense, the inculcation of the consumerist ethos, harnessed as a means of fueling the burgeoning private sector, amounts to the de facto division of global consciousness into two categories. For the author, the tourist and the vagabond, people with the financial ability to free themselves from the grips of spatial locality, and those who aspire to become free in the former sense, epitomize the cultural, economic, and political expectations of the new global elite and the local underclass. Bauman views the increased use of criminal incarceration and the conservative appeal to "public" law and order as an outgrowth of this spatial dichotomy, and the increase in urban criminal activity as a symptom of this new polarization. In referring to this issue as the "criminalization of poverty," Bauman suggests that the global elite have reconfigured the structure of power in the world market, since they are no longer bound by practical barriers, namely governmental restrictions and national boundaries. The tourists have effectively withdrawn from their historical obligation to local communities, while the underclass have been forced to contend with their plight (unemployment and economic insecurity) in the tumult of urban ghettos on an individual basis. Escape, slippage, and avoidance, according to the author, have become the preferred method of interaction with hostile localities, namely labor unions and unstable markets. Thus, the seat or seats of power, within the structure of the post-Fordist economy, have become more abstract and intangible, since capital mobility, capital flight, and financial investment are temporary, nomadic, and spatially diffused. Thus, contrary to the optimism of many free-market advocates and technocrats, the introduction of the technological/communicational age has not ushered in an era of international equality and access to the political sphere. In contrast, an asymmetrical structure of power relations now characterizes the global milieu and economic governance. Limited accountability, contemporarily speaking, has redefined the role of the business elite to their workers, communities, and consumers.

3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
Bipolar Bauman
By Rev. Thomas Scarborough
This book represents one of a series, which, as one of its goals, "aims to shape the major intellectual controversies of our day". It deals with five major themes:

the new "absentee landlords" of our time

the "legibility of space"

the "demise of state sovereignty"

the "freedom to choose where to be", and

the criminalisation of "the rejects and the waste of globalization".

Zygmunt Bauman paints a stark picture of "state borders . . . levelled down". He writes about "the fast weakening hands of the nation-state", and the reduction of the state to "the issue of law and order". Is this a true reflection of reality? "Globalising" powers are, after all, nothing new. One may think of the papacy, or of colonialism, which exercised vast trans-national influence. While such powers undoubtedly had a profound impact on nation states, they did not erase either their borders or their national character. It would seem far more likely that state power is merely transmuting into new forms.

The new global order, states Bauman, has largely emancipated business "from territorial constraints". In the past, we knew the "absentee landlord" -- a class of agricultural landowner who lives away from his property and is not directly involved in its day-to-day production. Even the absentee landlord, however, faced a "practical limit" to exploitation. According to Bauman, this is not so in the case of "late-modern capitalists and land-brokers, thanks to the new mobility of their now liquid resources". They easily uproot and relocate to exploit more favourable circumstances elsewhere, creating an "increasingly worrying polarization of the world".

This was a worthwhile book. However, Bauman would seem to have oversimplified and overstated the case. He writes freely about "extremal expressions of . . . polarization", and of "worlds sedimented on the two poles". While there is surely much truth in his claims, this is not a nuanced book. This having been said, his polar opposites would seem, by and large, to represent modern trends. The world has indeed become more polarised through globalisation, to the great detriment of many millions of people on the planet.

3 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
Juxtaposing Effects of Globalization
By John Dunn
Bauman's thesis is that the twin siblings of globalization are opulence and mobility at the top (the 'tourists') and alienation and despair at the bottom ('the vagabonds')of the social milieu. He makes a good case for such tendencies, though he relies on metaphor and allegory, more than careful argumernt. This is a brilliantly stimulating book which should be widely discussed. Nonetheless, the lack of qualification -(e.g., most of us are neither completely tourists or vagabonds - which Bauman notes but then drops) leaves his paradigms looking like caricatures. I felt aambivialence towards much of Bsuman's discussion, agreeing with him that he had identified a problem but disagreeing with him on its paramenters and extent. Globalization, though fraught with problems, deserves a bettter defense.

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In The Set-Apart Woman, women of all ages will be encouraged to stay grounded in Jesus amid the many distractions and temptations of their daily lives. Biblical truths will help readers understand what it means to live the consecrated life, set apart for God’s purposes. Readers will apply these truths to practical areas of struggle that women face on a daily basis, such as sinful attitudes and patterns and other hindrances to our souls.

Sales Rank: #254109 in eBooks
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Most helpful customer reviews

14 of 14 people found the following review helpful.
A Must Read for Christian Women!
By Mandy
In reading Leslie’s new book, The Set-Apart Woman, I’ve been deeply refreshed and inspired by the picture Leslie paints of what a truly set apart woman and Christ-centered life looks like. I’ve been corrected by God’s Spirit in areas where my own walk and life have grown lax. And yet, I’ve been spurred on by the hope of Christ in me, which is my enablement to live the way that He has called me to. Best of all, I’ve been captivated afresh by the glory of Christ’s Cross and the beauty that is wrapped up in living fully and only for Him!

Our hearts were made to crave more than this world has to offer—they were made for God Himself. This book’s message will leave you restless and uncomfortable if you’ve allowed subtle sins of the world to creep into Christ’s sacred seat in your life. If you and I are to truly be lights for Christ and lead others into His Kingdom, then we most certainly cannot blend into the likeness of this world and the flesh! Our lives must be startling different—entirely altered—completely set apart by and for Christ. Leslie powerfully articulates these truths and skillfully guides us into exploring the spiritual and practical dimensions of our lives to evaluate whether or not we are truly living in alignment with God’s Word. We are challenged and inspired to freshly forsake all in order to truly follow after Him in love and to truly be effective for the cause of His Kingdom here on this earth. While this book carries a message that is an indictment to modern Christianity, we aren’t left bruised and battered by its message. Instead, as we respond to the conviction of God’s Spirit, we are filled with a vision for the rich and abundant life we are promised in Christ and the high and heavenly purpose for which God created us!

This book left me hungering for greater depths with my Lord and welling up with passion for Him to be magnified and glorified in my life afresh! As you read this book and choose to follow Jesus without ever turning back, you too will truly discover the deep joy and rest that is found in being exclusively His.

7 of 7 people found the following review helpful.
It is only by being set apart for Christ and living our lives in radical abandon to Him that the lost (or lukewarm) around us wi
By jabessabie
Before I even got through the first chapter, already this book was challenging me to evaluate how I spent my time and if I was allowing any cultural frivolity into my behavior. This book challenged me to re-evaluate my priorities and pressed me to be even more passionate about Christ and His kingdom. I was reminded afresh that Christians are not called to be culturally savvy. Knowing the latest TV show jokes or movie quotes is not going to be what brings those in this generation to Christ. It is only by being set apart for Christ and living our lives in radical abandon to Him that the lost (or lukewarm) around us will see the joy and life that we have in Christ as something they are missing. In chapter two of The Set Apart Woman, Leslie writes these two powerful quotes:

“The world isn’t rejecting Christianity because we aren’t enough like the culture. Rather it’s because we are too much like it. There is nothing different about our lives, nothing that proves we have found something bigger to live for than temporary pleasure, and certainly nothing that says we have found something worth dying for.”

“Nonbelievers will only be drawn [to Christ] when they see something real, something powerful, something far beyond what pop culture could ever hope to offer”

As I’ve been pondering these words of wisdom, I’ve had such a renewed desire to live my life with an ever-present joy and yet set-apartness for Christ. I’ve been asking myself the question, “What really is the mark of a Christian?” and “What are the attributes that the world should be able to recognize in those that call themselves Christ’s followers?” As Leslie writes in her book, not only are we to be seen as “set apart,” but as followers of Jesus Christ, marked by joyful humility and courageous faithfulness. Because we have Jesus—the true Savior of this world and to whom is given the name of Love—in every situation we face, those around us should be able to see His life shining out of us. We should be marked by an unquenchable love for Him, a radiant joy in both the mundane tasks of everyday life and in its greatest trials, and a resilient courage to face all difficulties with absolute confidence because we reside in the unmovable rock of Jesus Christ.

4 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
A refreshing, life-giving book - like cool water for a soul that is thirsting for Jesus!
By Lauren
I am so, so grateful for this book. Leslie's books have played a significant part in my walk with the Lord and I knew that The Set Apart Woman would be no different. With each chapter, the Lord used her words to challenge my heart, reveal subtle compromise in my life, and bring me back to a place of ardent devotion to Him. Leslie boldly tackles challenges that women face each day (building your life around Jesus, time management, fear, emotions, legalism, media, and more) with glorious Gospel truth. This isn't a feel-good book and its "no compromise" message is sure to press you to Christ, whether you have been walking with Him for 2 years or 20 years. I am overjoyed at the renewed refining work He is doing in my heart and life through this book!

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Number of items: 1
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Sales Rank: #211343 in Books
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A practical guide to outguessing everything from multiple-choice tests to the office football pool to the stock market.

People are predictable even when they try not to be. William Poundstone demonstrates how to turn this fact to personal advantage in scores of everyday situations, from playing the lottery to buying a home. ROCK BREAKS SCISSORS is mind-reading for real life.

Will the next tennis serve go right or left? Will the market go up or down? Most people are poor at that kind of predicting. We are hard-wired to make bum bets on "trends" and "winning streaks" that are illusions. Yet ultimately we're all in the business of anticipating the actions of others. Poundstone reveals how to overcome the errors and improve the accuracy of your own outguessing. ROCK BREAKS SCISSORS is a hands-on guide to turning life's odds in your favor.

Sales Rank: #397902 in Books
Published on: 2015-09-08
Released on: 2015-09-08
Original language: English
Number of items: 1
Dimensions: 8.25" h x .88" w x 5.50" l, .0 pounds
Binding: Paperback
320 pages

From Booklist
The title makes it sound kind of like one of those shady get-rich-quick books, but this is, in fact, a smart, engagingly written account of how to capitalize on other peoples’ predictability (while at the same time, if we’re paying attention, minimize our own predictability). With the smooth readability of John Allen Paulos, whose Innumeracy (1988) has some thematic similarities, Poundstone explores how our tendencies toward uniformity and simplicity, even when we think we’re being random and complex, leave us open to exploitation by people who know more than we do, like the fact that, when asked to pick one object out of five lined up in a row, most people will pick the second or fourth, or that, in the game rock/paper/scissors, most men choose rock, and scissors is the least popular choice by both genders. There’s some mathematics here—the author explains what he’s talking about in detail—but it’s clearly explained and easily accessible to the general reader. An enlightening book, though, sadly, much of the enlightenment comes from realizing that we’re not as clever as we thought we were. --David Pitt

Review
"An ingenious guide to outsmarting others by predicting their choices when they are trying to be unpredictable." -- Kirkus (Starred Review)

"Of all of the books I've received for The Post, none has received as much over-the-shoulder reads than ROCK BREAKS SCISSORS."
―Susannah Callahan, The New York Post

Praise for Are You Smart Enough to Work at Google?

"Poundstone displays his scientific knowledge, mathematical fluency, and knack for explaining the arcane in playfully precise sentences."―Bloomberg Businessweek

"A smart, engagingly written account of how to capitalize on other peoples' predictability . . . clearly explained and easily accessible to the general reader. An enlightening book."―Booklist

"Delightful, fun, and worth a read."―Seth Godin

"Incredibly gratifying....There's an art to these invasive questions, as Poundstone reveals in this neat little manifesto."―New Scientist

About the Author
William Poundstone is the author of thirteen previous books, including Are You Smart Enough to Work at Google?, How Would You Move Mount Fuji?, and Fortune's Formula. He has written for the New York Times, Harper's, Harvard Business Review, and the Village Voice, among other publications, and is a frequent guest on TV and radio. He lives in Los Angeles. Follow Poundstone on Twitter (@WPoundstone) and learn more at his website, home.williampoundstone.net.

Most helpful customer reviews

50 of 52 people found the following review helpful.
Excellent topic and well explained
By CK
Although I am engineer and read a fair number of science books, this is the first time I have ever come across this topic which is a cross between number theory and behavioral economics. I found it very illuminating and well presented and not at all disorganized as the previous reviewer states. And I don't think a book should get a one star merely because another book covered the material well. The value of a book is how much the reader benefited from it.

I am very intrigued by the topic as it brings together, game theory, number theory, and probability theory. Well done. Like it.
Charan Langton complextoreal.com

Added: I went back and looked at "machines that think" just out of curiosity. This is a book about history of artificial intelligence and in particular about the progress made in AI at a particular place (Dartmouth) and time (70's). The comparison is quite not appropriate. Now AI is a huge topic, far bigger than what this book is attempting to cover and describe that is the human biases and tendencies towards certain numbers particularly in light thresholds and constraints. When humans cheat they cheat in predictable ways, very much along what Dan Arielly talks about in his very excellent book "Predictably Irrational".

The book discusses the Benford's Law, also called the First-Digit Law, which is the frequency distribution of digits in real data such as financial, tax returns, etc. In this distribution, the number 1 occurs as the leading digit about 30% of the time, while larger numbers occur in that position less frequently: 9 as the first digit less than 5% of the time. This law can be used to determine if the data being examined has been faked which tends to deviate from this distribution significantly. This because no matter how hard we try, we humans are unable to create truly random sequences of digits. We have too many predictable biases for certain numbers and in our attempt to appear non-random create patently non-random numbers be it on tax returns or others data such as faked experiment results. The author talks about in addition to out biases about certain numbers but also orders in which we pick things making "magic tricks" possible.
So I am sticking to my rating.

13 of 14 people found the following review helpful.
Gaining a slight edge
By David J. Aldous
Neither this US title nor the UK title "How to predict the unpredictable" is very informative. Better is the author’s declaration “All of this book’s applications are founded on one simple idea. When people make arbitrary, random or strategic choices, they fall into unconscious patterns that you can predict.” But here “predict” is much too strong — ``gain a slight edge” is more indicative.

There are 19 short chapters and one long one. One recurrent theme is that when opponents should randomize actions — tennis serves, soccer penalty kicks, poker bluffing, and of course rock-paper-scissors — they tend to avoid making the same action two or three times in succession; anticipating this gives you an edge. Another theme is exploiting observed non-uniformity; in lottery number choices or in answer options on multiple choice tests. Another theme is detection of manipulation or outright falsification of financial data, detectable by Benford’s (first digit) law or by occurrence of numbers just on the desirable side of some significant threshold. A final theme is inspired by the “hot hand” phenomenon, which all sports players and most sports spectators believe in, but which statisticians have debunked. So can you exploit others’ erroneous belief? One idea involves “betting on the underdog” systems which people have derived from past data, though the author seems unduly credulous about their future reliability.

The style — fast-paced short paragraphs in large type — makes very easy reading. And because there is no very comparable book, I am happy to recommend it to anyone interested in these topics out of general curiosity. Though to what extent this material will be actually useful to a typical reader, I find hard to guess.

The final long chapter on the stock market has more substance. The conventional academic view is that you should “buy and hold the market” via a low-expense index fund, rather than pay for professional management (incurring fees for no demonstrable benefit) or engage in some trading strategy of your own invention (typically seriously underperforming the market). The author advocates seeking to beat ``buy and hold” via long-cycle market timing, in particular the Shiller system of buying when market PE (based on last 10 years earnings) falls to some low threshold and selling when it rises to some high threshold. This system is supported by both logic and historical data, though being a ``whole lifetime” strategy I imagine that few people are psychologically prepared to adopt and persist with this one strategy for much of a lifetime.

A few minor quibbles. The advice on choosing passwords is sensible but omits the arguably better xkcd “correct_horse_battery_staple” (4 moderately common words strung together) idea and does not emphasize using a password strength checker. The advice on interpreting product ratings — look at the proportion of 5/5 ratings instead of the average rating — doesn’t seem based on any actual evidence. The discussion of Benford’s law admirably admits its misuse but doesn’t emphasize the main mathematical point, that it only applies to data with a rather wide range of values.

5 of 5 people found the following review helpful.
A Guide on Getting the Upper Hand
By bronx book nerd
This is an interesting and entertaining book that provides different tips and advice on how to get the upper hand in certain situations, everything from playing rock-paper-scissors to March Madness bracket pools to the stock market. Poundstone begins by telling the story of how one person creating an out-guessing machine that basically could figure out picking patterns by humans. The revelation there is that people tend to create predictable patterns when they try to create random series. This is the biggest take away. When we think of something random, we almost automatically assume that this rules out repetition, whereas the repetition of numbers can be a random outcome (it just doesn't "look" that way to most people). This tendency is exhibited in many different fields, and can be used to identify fraudulent numbers, for example, because people tend to favor and disfavor certain numbers when they are making up data. Poundstone provides tips on how to pick lottery numbers that are more likely to garner a bigger share (if you win) and how to win football bets that involve spreads. The material is fascinating and reinforces a lot of findings from behavioral economics, such as the representative heuristic, for example, but more important, reinforces the fact that people stubbornly believe what they want to believe against all evidence.

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Sales Rank: #7367211 in Books
Published on: 2014-03-19
Original language: English
Number of items: 1
Dimensions: 8.00" h x .14" w x 5.00" l, .15 pounds
Binding: Paperback
58 pages

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